May 29, 2024


The Joy of Technology

Could Micron Technology Become the Next Nvidia?


Nvidia (NVDA -1.98%) has turned out to be a terrific expenditure about the yrs as the chipmaker’s dominance of the graphics processing device (GPU) current market has assisted it increase fast.

From building just $4 billion in earnings in fiscal 2012 when the use of graphics cards was restricted to only a couple apps these kinds of as personalized computers (PCs) and mobile units for gaming, Nvidia has appear a extensive way. GPUs are now currently being deployed in large volumes across a large variety of apps, together with desktops, consoles, data facilities, workstations, and self-driving autos.

Person in specs holding a smartphone.

Picture source: Getty Photographs.

This points out why Nvidia concluded fiscal 2022 (which finished Jan. 30) with a document earnings of almost $27 billion. The tech giant’s impressive progress trajectory is set to continue, as analysts count on its top line to exceed $40 billion by fiscal 2024. That is not going to be astonishing, as Nvidia is the dominant participant in the discrete graphics card sector which is constructed for sturdy extensive-expression growth.

But traders who have missed Nvidia stock’s very hot, market place-beating rally about the earlier decade have to have not be dissatisfied. That is since Micron Engineering (MU -.91%) could flip out to be the following significant semiconductor engage in and replicate Nvidia-like gains. Let us see why that may possibly be the situation.

Micron Technological know-how is benefiting from the developing application of memory chips

Micron Technology offers memory chips that are applied for computing and storage in various applications this kind of as PCs, mobile computing units, facts centers, gaming consoles, factories, cars, and numerous other people. Just like Nvidia, even Micron’s current market was confined to programs this kind of as desktops and cellular phones a 10 years in the past, and devices utilised to eat a whole lot much less memory than they do now.

For some perspective, Micron experienced generated $8.2 billion in profits in fiscal 2012, whilst its loss stood at $1.04 per share thanks to the cyclical nature of the memory current market. The chipmaker has been traditionally impacted by booms and busts in memory price ranges in the past, with its profits and margins nosediving when the memory industry was faced with an oversupply or weak demand from customers.

Even so, it appears that the memory industry is not impacted by cyclicity anymore, thanks to the spurt in programs of DRAM (dynamic random obtain memory) and NAND flash memory. This is obvious from Micron’s marvelous expansion in the ongoing fiscal year, inspite of issues on Wall Avenue past 12 months that memory price ranges are established to tumble.

The firm has generated $15.5 billion in revenue for the initial six months of fiscal 2022, up 29% about the prior-12 months period. Analysts be expecting Micron to complete the fiscal year with approximately $34 billion in profits whilst anticipating that its fiscal 2023 revenue would cross $40 billion. For comparison, Micron generated just $8.2 billion in earnings in fiscal 2022 when the sizing of its addressable sector was smaller.

So just like Nvidia, Micron has also won massive from the expanding software of the chips that it sells. In truth, both corporations are anticipated to generate equivalent revenue in a few of several years, as the discussion above signifies.

Micron is striving to raise its sector share

Nvidia’s dominant placement in the graphics card market place has been the driving drive driving the firm’s fantastic expansion more than the a long time. According to Jon Peddie Analysis, Nvidia managed 81% of the discrete GPU industry in the fourth quarter of 2021. The company is also the top company of details centre graphics playing cards, with marketplace research business Omdia estimating that it controlled above 80% of this booming house in 2020.

Micron, on the other hand, isn’t really the premier participant in the memory sector. The corporation controlled 23.5% of the DRAM memory marketplace in 2020, trailing Samsung and SK Hynix, which controlled 41.7% and 29.4% of this sector, respectively. Even so, Micron has been attempting to acquire share absent from its rivals on the again of its solution advancement moves, and the good portion is that its moves are bearing fruit.

As it turns out, Micron reportedly makes the most advanced DRAM node at current as when compared to its rivals. And now, the company is on keep track of to begin the manufacturing of DRAM chips dependent on the serious ultraviolet (EUV) lithography course of action from 2024 — a move which is expected to assist it keep a technological innovation lead around rivals.

All this signifies that Micron might be on its way to capturing a even larger share of the huge DRAM current market that clocked an believed $92.5 billion in earnings final 12 months. What is actually more, world-wide DRAM revenue is expected to exceed $200 billion by 2028, which need to assist Micron maintain its sturdy progress in the prolonged run.

Why Micron could grow to be the following Nvidia

Micron is a more substantial firm than Nvidia in phrases of earnings. The memory professional has created just over $31 billion in profits in excess of the trailing 12 months, greater than Nvidia’s $26.9 billion. Nonetheless, Nvidia’s highly-priced valuation means that it is a a great deal even larger enterprise than Micron in terms of current market capitalization.

Nvidia has a current market capitalization of $505 billion as when compared to Micron’s $79 billion. On the other hand, Nvidia trades at a rich 52 times earnings as in comparison to Micron’s trailing earnings multiple of 9. Micron’s sales a number of of 2.65 is also significantly reduce than Nvidia’s a number of of approximately 21. This points out why Nvidia’s valuation eclipses that of Micron by a massive margin.

Nevertheless, analysts estimate the two Micron and Nvidia will clock identical annual earnings growth of 30% for the next five yrs. So it will not be astonishing to see Micron trade at a additional expensive valuation in the upcoming because it seems nicely placed to preserve growing its earnings and revenue at a good pace.

All this suggests that Micron Technological innovation has the possible to grow to be the next Nvidia. The memory specialist is making reliable income and earnings growth and operating to increase its market place share, and it operates in an field which is crafted for expansion in the lengthy operate. Which is why buyers wanting to buy a development stock at a low-priced valuation may possibly look at getting Micron correct now just before it will become more costly like Nvidia.


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